I had a bit of trauma after screwing up uniform gatcha beautifully.
Five rolls and no 5 stars :( I was going to screenshot and show it but I didn't log in for three days to p&D..... Well today, my post isn't really going to be about P&D but more about probability.
I was always surprised by the fact that chance of you rolling at least one 6 after throwing dice 6 times are only about 2/3. Well, at least I knew it wasn't certainty but I was thinking it would be close to one.
This is strange nature of probability. I am writing this because I found someone online complaining about other gatcha game.
He apparently had 10% chance (game kindly released statistics!) of getting 5 stars and he rolled 10 times. He didn't get a single five stars and complaining about how the game is cheating him.
He made two simple errors.
First of all, chance of him getting not a single five stars 34.8%. WELL that is quite significant enough. There is nothing really ridiculous about it! The chance of that happening is more than 1/3! It is not something that is so surprising even if it does happen.
Second of all, even if chance is low, it can happen. Even chance as 0.00001% doesn't mean, it won't happen, especially when the sample size gets bigger! To quote some chances, you have about 1 in 2 million chance of getting strike my lightening, 1 in 8 million chance of winning lottery! Such a small chance but they do happen!
Unlike people tend to think, 10% is not that big chance. 5% is even smaller chance. Everyone all should realise that when we are doing gatcha in any type of mobile games, the odds are not in our favour! Far from it. As the players, we should always remember doing gatcha in mobile games are almost similar to playing games in casino but odds are just worst and your incentives are not as great as the casino!
In general, I do not know what is the probability of getting five stars and above in P&D, my guess is that it is quiet significant! (for non god-fest limited monsters it might be as high as 20~30%) (some say it is 2% for 5 star god fest limited and 0.2% for 6 star god fest limited but I seriously doubt that chance.... it is too low to be true, I believe) But again I can't make estimate with such a small amount of data!
Though I have to agree that gatcha is what makes mobile game mobile!
So let's roll roll roll! But let's not curse the game but curse the chance (or your luck XD)!
sky's ocean
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